Whip Inflation Now campaign WIN 1974

Stagflation and the Ford administration's "Whip Inflation Now" (WIN) campaign in 1974

In 1974, the United States found itself in the grip of a confounding economic crisis that defied the traditional playbook of economists. Inflation was soaring. Unemployment was rising. Economic growth was stagnant. These conditions weren’t supposed to coexist - not according to the dominant Keynesian models of the time, which held that inflation and unemployment had an inverse relationship. What emerged was something altogether different and troubling: stagflation - a term that would be coined and cemented into the economic lexicon that same year.

The rise of stagflation

The concept of stagflation - simultaneous stagnation and inflation - had been whispered before, but by 1974 it was shouted. This was the year economists had to face a grim reality: the postwar consensus that high unemployment could be cured by fiscal stimulus, and that inflation could be tamed by cooling off the economy, was breaking down.



A perfect storm was hitting the U.S. economy. First, the oil shock of 1973, triggered by the OPEC oil embargo, quadrupled energy prices virtually overnight. This sent costs spiraling across sectors, triggering cost-push inflation, where higher input costs lead to rising consumer prices. Second, the Bretton Woods system - under which global currencies were pegged to the U.S. dollar, which in turn was backed by gold - had collapsed in 1971 under President Nixon, leading to a devaluation of the dollar and further inflationary pressure.

Meanwhile, industries across the country were slowing down. Layoffs mounted. Productivity sagged. The unemployment rate climbed above 7% by 1974. Inflation, however, surged past 12%. For policymakers and economists alike, it was a paradox. The old rules no longer applied. The Phillips Curve, which supposedly mapped a trade-off between inflation and unemployment, was now in question. What do you do when you have both?

Enter President Gerald Ford and the "WIN" campaign

When Gerald R. Ford assumed the presidency in August 1974 after Richard Nixon’s resignation, he inherited this economic quagmire. He also inherited a deep skepticism about government credibility in the wake of Watergate. Americans were angry, anxious, and uncertain - and the economy was at the heart of it all.

Ford’s administration sought an answer, and by October 1974, he unveiled what would become a hallmark - and a cautionary tale - of presidential economic policy: the "Whip Inflation Now" campaign, or WIN.



The core idea of WIN was to enlist the American public in a grassroots fight against inflation. The administration likened inflation to an enemy that needed to be defeated not just by policymakers, but by collective civic virtue. Ford encouraged Americans to tighten their belts: conserve energy, reduce spending, save more, and avoid wage and price hikes.

WIN had the branding power of a political campaign. Red-and-white buttons with “WIN” in block letters were distributed across the country. Citizens were asked to sign “WIN pledges.” Volunteers were called on to act as “Inflation Fighters.” The Department of Agriculture issued tips on gardening and home canning. WIN committees were formed in cities and towns to promote voluntary frugality.

But there was a problem: there was no actual policy behind it.

The weakness of WIN

WIN was not backed by the kind of aggressive fiscal or monetary policy typically used to address inflation. There were no immediate tax hikes, no spending freezes, and the Federal Reserve - concerned about recession - was reluctant to raise interest rates aggressively. The campaign was almost entirely voluntary and symbolic. Critics lampooned it as empty moralizing. Economist Milton Friedman called it “a political gimmick.”

The public didn’t buy it, either. Many saw WIN as tone-deaf, a distraction from the systemic nature of the economic crisis. Inflation wasn’t going to be defeated by citizens planting tomatoes or turning down their thermostats. The campaign quickly lost steam and credibility. By early 1975, it was largely abandoned.



Meanwhile, the economy continued to struggle. GDP contracted sharply in 1974 and early 1975. The U.S. entered what was then the worst recession since the Great Depression. Inflation remained elevated. Unemployment crept toward 9%. In response, Congress passed a large tax cut in 1975 and increased federal spending, moving away from the voluntary ethos of WIN and toward more conventional Keynesian stimulus.

Legacy and lessons

The failure of WIN and the trauma of stagflation in the mid-1970s had a long-lasting impact on economic thinking and policy. It marked the beginning of the end for Keynesian orthodoxy in the U.S. and opened the door for the monetarist and supply-side revolutions of the late 1970s and early 1980s. The Federal Reserve, under Paul Volcker, would later attack inflation with tight monetary policy in the early Reagan years - deliberately pushing the economy into recession to reset expectations and tame prices.

As for Gerald Ford, the economic turmoil under his watch, combined with the public perception of a leader offering slogans in place of solutions, weakened his position going into the 1976 election, which he narrowly lost to Jimmy Carter.

Conclusion

Stagflation in 1974 upended economic assumptions and exposed the limits of government messaging without policy muscle. The term captured a new reality: an economy beset by inflation and stagnation simultaneously, immune to easy fixes. Ford’s “Whip Inflation Now” campaign was a well-meaning gesture, but in the end, it underscored the importance of real economic action over symbolic appeals. The crisis of 1974 forced a reckoning in economic policy - and left behind a cautionary tale about the dangers of underestimating complexity with oversimplified solutions.